{"id":8121,"date":"2020-12-15T18:30:24","date_gmt":"2020-12-15T16:30:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/?p=8121"},"modified":"2020-12-15T21:27:07","modified_gmt":"2020-12-15T19:27:07","slug":"latvijas-demografiska-prognoze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/en\/latvijas-demografiska-prognoze-2020-12-15\/","title":{"rendered":"Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s situ\u0101cijas prognozes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h3>Kopsavilkums<\/h3>\n<blockquote><p>SIA &#8220;Emerging Solutions&#8221; jau otro gadu sagatavo Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes apskatu laika posmam l\u012bdz 2040.gadam. Anal\u012bze ir veikta, izmantojot demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s kohortas anal\u012bzes metodi.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/PopulacPiramida2019-1.png\" alt=\"Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju vecuma strukt\u016bra Latvij\u0101, 2020.gada s\u0101kums\" width=\"500\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><br \/>\n 1.att\u0113ls. Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju vecuma strukt\u016bra, 2020.gada s\u0101kums.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul>\n<li>Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits turpina samazin\u0101ties, ta\u010du tagad tas notiek liel\u0101koties zem\u0101s dzimst\u012bbas nevis migr\u0101cijas d\u0113\u013c. 2019.gad\u0101 migr\u0101cijas d\u0113\u013c zaud\u0113j\u0101m 3 360 cilv\u0113kus, savuk\u0101rt nelabv\u0113l\u012bg\u0101s dzimst\u012bbas \/ mirst\u012bbas situ\u0101cijas d\u0113\u013c: ap 8 930 cilv\u0113kus.<\/li>\n<li>Ik gadu Latvijas darba tirgus zaud\u0113 ap 15 000 \u2013 17 000 cilv\u0113ku.<\/li>\n<li>Ja situ\u0101cija att\u012bst\u012bsies l\u012bdz\u012bgi, k\u0101 p\u0113d\u0113jos gados (b\u0101zes scen\u0101rijs), ap 2040. gadu, iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits krit\u012bsies l\u012bdz 1,58 miljoniem, un darba tirgus tuv\u0101kajos gados zaud\u0113s ik gadu ap 15 t\u016bksto\u0161us cilv\u0113ku bet ap 2030.gadu \u2013 ik gadu ap 10 t\u016bksto\u0161us. Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju vecuma sast\u0101vs b\u016btiski nemain\u012bsies.<\/li>\n<li>\u0160\u0101du nep\u0101rtrauktu darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita samazin\u0101jum ir \u013coti gr\u016bti kompens\u0113t ar palielin\u0101tu darba ra\u017e\u012bgumu un, visdr\u012bz\u0101k, Latvijas ekonomisk\u0101 att\u012bst\u012bba \u0161\u012b iemesla d\u0113\u013c stagn\u0113s.<\/li>\n<li>Ja Latvija piedz\u012bvos atk\u0101rtotas ekonomisk\u0101s kr\u012bzes bez \u012bpa\u0161as situ\u0101cijas uzlabo\u0161an\u0101s (kr\u012bzes scen\u0101rijs), ap 2040. gadu valst\u012b dz\u012bvos tikai 1,36 miljoni iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju. Darba tirgus ik gadu zaud\u0113s ap 17 t\u016bksto\u0161us cilv\u0113ku, sabiedr\u012bba novecos.<\/li>\n<li>Ja izv\u0113l\u0113simies pan\u0101kt, ka imigr\u0101cijas rezult\u0101t\u0101 2040. gad\u0101 valst\u012b dz\u012bvo tikpat iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju, cik 2019. gada s\u0101kum\u0101, ik gadu imigr\u0101cijas ce\u013c\u0101 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits j\u0101palielina par 16 000 (s\u0101kot no 2026. gada). Pie \u0161\u0101 scen\u0101rija darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101s tikai nedaudz, palielin\u0101s b\u0113rnu un jaunie\u0161u skaits, sabiedr\u012bba k\u013c\u016bst jaun\u0101ka.<\/li>\n<li>Pa\u0161laik vid\u0113ji vienai sievietei dzimst 1,61 b\u0113rni, kas Eiropas l\u012bmen\u012b ir sal\u012bdzino\u0161i labs l\u012bmenis. Lai pan\u0101ktu, ka liel\u0101kas dzimst\u012bbas rezult\u0101t\u0101 2040. gad\u0101 valst\u012b dz\u012bvo tikpat iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju, cik 2020. gada s\u0101kum\u0101, katrai Latvijas sievietei b\u016btu j\u0101dzemd\u0113 3,51 b\u0113rni. Noz\u012bm\u012bga da\u013ca Latvijas sievie\u0161u nesp\u0113j un nev\u0113las rad\u012bt tik daudz b\u0113rnu.<\/li>\n<li>Ja iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits turpin\u0101s samazin\u0101ties, Latvijas ekonomikas att\u012bst\u012bba visdr\u012bz\u0101k b\u016bs neveiksm\u012bg\u0101ka nek\u0101 l\u012bdz \u0161im.<\/li>\n<li>\u0122imenes politikai Latvijas demogr\u0101fiskaj\u0101 situ\u0101cij\u0101 ir milzu noz\u012bme, jo t\u0101 rada iesp\u0113ju palielin\u0101t \u0161eit dzimu\u0161o b\u0113rnu skaitu, vienlaikus uzlabojot soci\u0101lekonomisko stabilit\u0101ti.<\/li>\n<li>Kam\u0113r valst\u012b nav savas imigr\u0101cijas politikas, nav pamata cer\u0113t, ka imigr\u0101cijas process notiks valstij un sabiedr\u012bbai labv\u0113l\u012bg\u0101 veid\u0101.<\/li>\n<li>Latvijai ir pla\u0161as iesp\u0113jas gan p\u0101r\u0146emt citu valstu pieredzi, gan veidot savu \u012bpa\u0161u demogr\u0101fisko politiku.<\/li>\n<li>Risinot Latvijas demogr\u0101fisko situ\u0101ciju, nav iesp\u0113jami vienk\u0101r\u0161i, pat\u012bkami un veiksm\u012bgi l\u0113mumi \u2013 jebkuras divas no \u0161\u012bm \u012bpa\u0161\u012bb\u0101m izsl\u0113dz tre\u0161o. Ilgtsp\u0113j\u012bgu demogr\u0101fisko politiku var \u012bstenot tikai, izgl\u012btojot sabiedr\u012bbu un past\u0101v\u012bgi ar to konsult\u0113joties.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Eso\u0161\u0101 situ\u0101cija<\/h3>\n<p>Gan eso\u0161\u0101s situ\u0101cijas anal\u012bzei, gan n\u0101kotnes scen\u0101riju izstr\u0101dei nepiecie\u0161amajai demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes kohortas anal\u012bzei ir izmantoti Centr\u0101l\u0101s statistikas p\u0101rvaldes dati.<\/p>\n<h4>Kopskaits<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>2020. gada s\u0101kum\u0101 Latvij\u0101 dz\u012bvoja 1 907 675 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ji.<\/li>\n<li>Gada laik\u0101 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101j\u0101s par 12 273 (0,64%). Tas ir milzu skaitlis, tom\u0113r \u0161is ir sal\u012bdzino\u0161i lab\u0101kais r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101js p\u0113d\u0113jo 15 gadu laik\u0101. 2011. gad\u0101 m\u0113s zaud\u0113j\u0101m pat 45 899 iedz\u012bvot\u0101jus (2,16%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Migr\u0101cija<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>2019. gada laik\u0101 migr\u0101cijas rezult\u0101t\u0101 Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101j\u0101s par 3 360.<\/li>\n<li>Ar\u012b \u0161is ir izteikti lab\u0101kais r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101js p\u0113d\u0113jo 15 gadu laik\u0101. Piem\u0113ram, 2010. gad\u0101 Latvija \u0161\u0101d\u0101 veid\u0101 zaud\u0113ja 35 640 iedz\u012bvot\u0101jus.<\/li>\n<li>Ja turpin\u0101tos \u0161\u0101ds uzlabojums, 2022.gad\u0101 Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ji migr\u0101cijas ce\u013c\u0101 ieg\u016btu vair\u0101k iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju nek\u0101 zaud\u0113tu.<\/li>\n<li>Migr\u0101cija kop\u0161 2017. gada vairs nav galvenais faktors Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita dinamik\u0101. Pa\u0161laik daudz noz\u012bm\u012bg\u0101ka ir negat\u012bv\u0101 dzimst\u012bbas\/mirst\u012bbas statistika.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Dzimst\u012bba<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>2019. gad\u0101 Latvij\u0101 piedzima 18 786 cilv\u0113ki, kas ir slikt\u0101kais r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101js kop\u0161 1998.gada. Sal\u012bdzin\u0101jumam \u2012 2008. gad\u0101 piedzima 24 397 cilv\u0113ki.<\/li>\n<li>Dzimst\u012bbas koeficients Latvij\u0101, sal\u012bdzinot ar p\u0101r\u0113j\u0101m Eiropas Savien\u012bbas valst\u012bm, ir sal\u012bdzino\u0161i augsts \u2013 2019. gad\u0101 uz vienu sievieti Latvij\u0101 vid\u0113ji bija 1,61 b\u0113rni. \u0160aj\u0101 zi\u0146\u0101 Latviju p\u0101rsp\u0113ja tikai 10 Eiropas Savien\u012bbas valstis, taj\u0101 skait\u0101 Igaunija un Lietuva.[1]<\/li>\n<li>Dzimst\u012bbas r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101ji pag\u0101ju\u0161\u0101 gad\u0101 pasliktin\u0101j\u0101s gan t\u0101d\u0113\u013c, ka ir pasliktin\u0101jies dzimst\u012bbas koeficients, gan ar\u012b t\u0101d\u0113\u013c, ka samazin\u0101s augl\u012bgaj\u0101 vecum\u0101 eso\u0161u sievie\u0161u skaits.<\/li>\n<li>Latvij\u0101 v\u0113rojama tendence, kas ir izteikta att\u012bst\u012bt\u0101k\u0101s valst\u012bs: pirmais b\u0113rns sieviet\u0113m dzimst aizvien v\u0113l\u0101k. Tagad pirmais b\u0113rns visbie\u017e\u0101k piedzimst 25-29 gadus vec\u0101m sieviet\u0113m, kam\u0113r v\u0113l 2009. gad\u0101 visbie\u017e\u0101k pirmais b\u0113rns piedzima 20-24 gadus vec\u0101m sieviet\u0113m.<\/li>\n<li>Izteikti samazin\u0101s agr\u012bn\u0101 m\u0101tes vecum\u0101 dzimu\u0161o b\u0113rnu skaits un b\u0113rni dzimst aizvien vec\u0101k\u0101m sieviet\u0113m. P\u0113d\u0113jo desmit gadu laik\u0101, piem\u0113ram, statistiski noz\u012bm\u012bgs k\u013cuvis 40-44 gadus vec\u0101m sieviet\u0113m dzimu\u0161o b\u0113rnu skaits, tam b\u016btiski p\u0101rsniedzot to b\u0113rnu skaitu, kas dzimis 15-19 gadus vec\u0101m sieviet\u0113m.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Mirst\u012bba<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Kop\u0161 1991. gada ik gadu miru\u0161o cilv\u0113ku skaits Latvij\u0101 p\u0101rsniedz piedzimu\u0161o skaitu.<\/li>\n<li>No 2010. l\u012bdz 2016. gadam \u0161\u012b starp\u012bba pak\u0101peniski samazin\u0101j\u0101s, t.i., dzimu\u0161o skaits pieauga, bet miru\u0161o skaits nemain\u012bj\u0101s vai pat nedaudz samazin\u0101j\u0101s. Kop\u0161 2016. gada \u0161\u012b statistika atkal pasliktin\u0101s, jo strauji s\u0101k kristies dzimu\u0161o skaits.<\/li>\n<li>Mirst\u012bbas koeficients da\u017e\u0101d\u0101s vecuma grup\u0101s Latvij\u0101 pak\u0101peniski kr\u012btas, m\u016b\u017ea ilgums Latvij\u0101 pieaug. Ja 1990. gad\u0101 vid\u0113jais miru\u0161\u0101 cilv\u0113ka vecums bija 67,2 gadi, tad 2019.gad\u0101 tas bija 75,0 gadi.<\/li>\n<li>Paredzamais m\u016b\u017ea ilgums Latvij\u0101 ir zem\u0101ks, nek\u0101 p\u0101r\u0113j\u0101s Eiropas Savien\u012bbas valst\u012bs, iz\u0146emot Bulg\u0101riju, Rum\u0101niju un Ung\u0101riju, pie kam Rum\u0101nij\u0101 \u0161is r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101js l\u012bdz \u0161im uzlabojas krietni strauj\u0101k, nek\u0101 Latvij\u0101. [2]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>V\u012brie\u0161u un sievie\u0161u skaita at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bba<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Latvij\u0101 sievie\u0161u skaits ir par 145 763 (7,6%) liel\u0101ks, nek\u0101 v\u012brie\u0161u skaits.<\/li>\n<li>\u0160\u012b liel\u0101 starp\u012bba veidojas vec\u0101kaj\u0101 paaudz\u0113. L\u012bdz 40 gadu vecumam Latvij\u0101 v\u012brie\u0161u skaits ir liel\u0101ks, nek\u0101 sievie\u0161u skaits. Vecuma grup\u0101 virs 85 gadiem sievie\u0161u ir aptuveni 3,5 reizes vair\u0101k, nek\u0101 v\u012brie\u0161u.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0160\u012b darba ietvaros tiek pie\u0146emts, ka darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ji ir vecum\u0101 no 19 l\u012bdz 64 gadiem. Form\u0101li darbsp\u0113jas vecums iest\u0101jas jau no 15 gadu vecuma, tom\u0113r Latvij\u0101 liel\u0101k\u0101 da\u013ca jaunie\u0161u vecum\u0101 l\u012bdz 19 gadiem v\u0113l nav darba tirgus dal\u012bbnieki.<\/li>\n<li>P\u0113d\u0113jo 15 gadu laik\u0101 (2005 \u2013 2020) krasi samazin\u0101j\u0101s 19 \u2013 64 gadus vecu iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits: tas krit\u0101s par 254 150 cilv\u0113kiem. T\u0101tad Latvijas darba tirgus \u0161aj\u0101 laik\u0101 zaud\u0113ja ap 18% darbaroku.<\/li>\n<li>Darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits tagad (2020.g.) ir 1 139 456 jeb 60,23% no visiem iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem. 2004. gad\u0101 Latvij\u0101 darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecum\u0101 bija 1 406 624 jeb 59,73% iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju.<\/li>\n<li>Ik gadu Latvijas darba tirgus zaud\u0113 ap 15 000 \u2013 17 000 cilv\u0113ku. 2019. gad\u0101 darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101j\u0101s par 15 291 cilv\u0113kiem.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Prognozes<\/h4>\n<p>Prognozes ir sast\u0101d\u012btas, izmantojot SIA \u201cEmerging Solutions\u201d strat\u0113\u0123isk\u0101 vad\u012bt\u0101ja Gata P\u0101vila izstr\u0101d\u0101tu demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes kohortas anal\u012bzes modeli, kur\u0101 tiek izmantoti \u0161\u0101di Centr\u0101l\u0101s Statistikas p\u0101rvaldes dati p\u0113d\u0113jo 15 gadu griezum\u0101:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits dal\u012bjum\u0101 pa dzimumiem un pa piecu gadu vecuma grup\u0101m;<\/li>\n<li>Dzimst\u012bba dal\u012bjum\u0101 pa m\u0101tes piecu gadu vecuma grup\u0101m;<\/li>\n<li>Mirst\u012bba dal\u012bjum\u0101 pa piecu gadu vecuma grup\u0101m;<\/li>\n<li>Migr\u0101cijas saldo;<\/li>\n<li>Eiropai rakstur\u012bgs migr\u0113jo\u0161o iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju vecuma sadal\u012bjums piecu gadu vecuma grup\u0101s (Eurostat dati, izmantojot Latvijas, V\u0101cijas, Zviedrijas, \u0160veices datus).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prognozes is sagatavotas laika posmam l\u012bdz 2040.gadam trim scen\u0101rijiem: b\u0101zes, kr\u012bzes un imigr\u0101cijas scen\u0101rijam.<\/p>\n<h3>B\u0101zes scen\u0101rija demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes<\/h3>\n<figure style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Migrac_2019.png\" alt=\"Migr\u0101cijas prognoze Latvij\u0101, b\u0101zes scen\u0101rijs\" width=\"550\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><br \/>\n 2.att\u0113ls. Migr\u0101cijas saldo prognoze, b\u0101zes scen\u0101rijs.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Tiek pie\u0146emts, ka situ\u0101cija att\u012bst\u012bsies l\u012bdz\u012bgi, k\u0101 tas ir noticis p\u0113d\u0113jo 10 gadu laik\u0101:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju dz\u012bves ilgums pak\u0101peniski palielin\u0101sies;<\/li>\n<li>Summ\u0101rais dzimst\u012bbas koeficients stabiliz\u0113sies;<\/li>\n<li>Turpin\u0101s pieaugt m\u0101tes vid\u0113jais vecums;<\/li>\n<li>Migr\u0101cijas saldo turpin\u0101s uzlaboties un 2022. gad\u0101 k\u013c\u016bs pozit\u012bvs, t.i. Latvij\u0101 pirmo reizi p\u0113d\u0113j\u0101s desmitgad\u0113s iebrauks vair\u0101k, nek\u0101 to pamet\u012bs. \u0160\u0101 scen\u0101rija ietvaros iece\u013cojo\u0161o iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits neb\u016bs \u012bpa\u0161i liels \u2013 ik gadus Latvij\u0101 apmet\u012bsies uz dz\u012bvi par da\u017eiem t\u016bksto\u0161iem iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju vair\u0101k, nek\u0101 to atst\u0101s.<\/li>\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Pie \u0161\u0101diem nosac\u012bjumiem, laika posm\u0101 l\u012bdz 2040. gadam Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija att\u012bst\u012bsies \u0161\u0101di:<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Prognoze_2019.png\" alt=\"Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes, b\u0101zes scen\u0101rijs\" width=\"550\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">3.att\u0113ls. Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita prognoze l\u012bdz 2040.gadam, b\u0101zes scen\u0101rijs.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101sies no pa\u0161reiz\u0113jiem 1,92 miljoniem l\u012bdz 1,58 miljoniem.<\/li>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101sies vis\u0101s vecuma grup\u0101s.<\/li>\n<li>Visstrauj\u0101k krit\u012bsies darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma (19-64 gadi) iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits: no tagad\u0113jiem 1,14 miljoniem l\u012bdz 0,93 miljoniem. Darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita \u012bpatsvars nedaudz samazin\u0101sies no 59,73% l\u012bdz 59,16%.<\/li>\n<li>Laika posm\u0101 l\u012bdz 2025.gadam darba tirgus gad\u0101 zaud\u0113s vid\u0113ji 15 t\u016bksto\u0161us cilv\u0113ku, 2025.-2030.gad\u0101 ik gadu \u2013 ap 13 \u2013 11 t\u016bksto\u0161us. P\u0113c 2030.gada darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita kritums pal\u0113nin\u0101sies l\u012bdz 3 \u2013 8 t\u016bksto\u0161iem gad\u0101.<\/li>\n<li>Pensijas vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju (65 un vair\u0101k gadi) skaits s\u0101ks samazin\u0101ties, jo pensijas vecumu sasniedz tie iedz\u012bvot\u0101ji, kuru jaun\u012bbas laik\u0101 s\u0101k\u0101s iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju aizpl\u016b\u0161ana no Latvijas. \u0160o cilv\u0113ku skaits samazin\u0101sies no 0,39 miljoniem l\u012bdz 0,32 miljoniem. Nedaudz krit\u012bsies ar\u012b pension\u0101ru \u012bpatsvars no tagad\u0113jiem 20,52% l\u012bdz 20,21%. L\u012bdz \u0161im pension\u0101ru skaita \u012bpatsvars Latvij\u0101 strauji pieauga.<\/li>\n<li>Pak\u0101peniski dzims aizvien maz\u0101k b\u0113rnu, jo, lai gan dzimst\u012bbas koeficients saglab\u0101sies stabils, Latvij\u0101 b\u016bs aizvien maz\u0101k augl\u012bg\u0101 vecuma sievie\u0161u. Ja 2019. gad\u0101 piedzima 18 786 b\u0113rni, tad 2040. gad\u0101 piedzims ap 16 600 b\u0113rnu.<\/li>\n<li>B\u0113rnu un jaunie\u0161u skaits krit\u012bsies no 0,38 miljoniem l\u012bdz 0,33 miljoniem, \u012bpatsvars kop\u0113j\u0101 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skait\u0101 nedaudz pieaugs no 19,7% l\u012bdz 20,6%.<\/li>\n<li>T\u0101 k\u0101 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits krit\u012bsies vis\u0101s vecuma grup\u0101s, slogs uz soci\u0101lo bud\u017eetu vairs \u012bpa\u0161i nepieaugs. No \u0161\u012b aspekta pensijas vecuma cel\u0161ana neb\u016btu tik nepiecie\u0161ama.<\/li>\n<li>Pensijas vecuma cel\u0161ana par vienu gadu teor\u0113tiski \u013cautu kompens\u0113t vien\u0101 gad\u0101 zaud\u0113to darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitu (ap 10-12 t\u016bksto\u0161i cilv\u0113ku), tom\u0113r \u0161\u0101du pa\u0146\u0113mienu darba tirgus saglab\u0101\u0161anai var turpin\u0101t tikai da\u017eus gadus.<\/li>\n<li>Latvijas ekonomika izteikti balst\u0101s uz cilv\u0113kresursiem \u2013 m\u016bsu ekonomika p\u0101r\u0113jai pasaulei var pied\u0101v\u0101t cilv\u0113ka roku darba veikumu, jo pasaules ekonomikai v\u0113rt\u012bgu dabas resursu (piem\u0113ram, der\u012bgie izrakte\u0146i, izcili augl\u012bga zeme) Latvij\u0101 ir maz. T\u0101d\u0113\u013c darba roku skaita samazin\u0101jums \u013coti s\u0101p\u012bgi atsauksies uz kop\u012bgo valsts ekonomikas veiktsp\u0113ju.<\/li>\n<li>Eso\u0161o valsts att\u012bst\u012bbas l\u012bmeni pie \u0161\u0101da demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes, visdr\u012bz\u0101k, izdosies saglab\u0101t un pat nedaudz k\u0101pin\u0101t, palielinot darba ra\u017e\u012bgumu. Tom\u0113r pie \u0161\u012b scen\u0101rija Latvija dr\u012bz\u0101k k\u013c\u016bs par ekonomiski stagn\u0113jo\u0161u valsti.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Kr\u012bzes scen\u0101rija demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes<\/h3>\n<figure style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Migrac_krize_2019.png\" alt=\"Migr\u0101cijas prognoze Latvij\u0101, kr\u012bzes scen\u0101rijs\" width=\"550\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">4.att\u0113ls. Migr\u0101cijas saldo prognoze, kr\u012bzes scen\u0101rijs.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u0160\u0101 scen\u0101rija ietvaros tiek pie\u0146emts, ka Latvij\u0101 ekonomisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija pasliktin\u0101sies, notiks atk\u0101rtotas kr\u012bzes. \u0160\u0101ds scen\u0101rijs ir iesp\u0113jams, ko par\u0101da vair\u0101ku Eiropas valstu negat\u012bvais piem\u0113rs un to var veicin\u0101t, cita starp\u0101, ar\u012b negat\u012bva situ\u0101cija darba tirg\u016b. \u0160\u0101 scen\u0101rija ietvaros:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju dz\u012bves ilgums s\u0101kotn\u0113ji turpin\u0101s pak\u0101peniski palielin\u0101ties un tad stabiliz\u0113sies, jo pak\u0101peniski degrad\u0113sies vesel\u012bbas apr\u016bpes sist\u0113ma;<\/li>\n<li>Summ\u0101rais dzimst\u012bbas koeficients pak\u0101peniski samazin\u0101sies galvenok\u0101rt jauno \u0123ime\u0146u aizbrauk\u0161anas, k\u0101 ar\u012b nelabv\u0113l\u012bgo ekonomisko apst\u0101k\u013cu d\u0113\u013c;<\/li>\n<li>Migr\u0101cijas saldo saglab\u0101sies negat\u012bvs. Lai gan aizbrauku\u0161o skaits vairs neb\u016bs tik liels, k\u0101 2008.-2011. gada kr\u012bzes laik\u0101, ik gadu valsti turpin\u0101s atst\u0101t 3-10 t\u016bksto\u0161i iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Pie \u0161\u0101diem nosac\u012bjumiem, laika posm\u0101 l\u012bdz 2040.gadam Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija att\u012bst\u012bsies \u0161\u0101di:<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Prognoze_krize_2019.png\" alt=\"Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes, kr\u012bzes scen\u0101rijs\" width=\"550\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">5.att\u0113ls. Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita prognoze l\u012bdz 2040.gadam, kr\u012bzes scen\u0101rijs.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101sies no pa\u0161reiz\u0113jiem 1,907 miljoniem l\u012bdz 1,36 miljoniem, iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101sies vis\u0101s vecuma grup\u0101s.<\/li>\n<li>Strauji krit\u012bsies b\u0113rnu un jaunie\u0161u (0-18 gadi) skaits: no tagad\u0113jiem 0,38 miljoniem (19,8% no visiem iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem) l\u012bdz 0,25 miljoniem (18,5% no visiem iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem). S\u0101kotn\u0113ji, da\u017eus gadus b\u0113rnu un jaunie\u0161u skaits b\u016bs l\u012bdz\u012bgs tagad\u0113jam skaitam, bet ap 2025. gadu s\u0101ks aizvien strauj\u0101k samazin\u0101ties.<\/li>\n<li>Darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita \u012bpatsvars samazin\u0101sies no 1,14 miljoniem (59,7% no visiem iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem) l\u012bdz 0,8 miljoniem (58,7%).<\/li>\n<li>Ik gadu darba tirgus zaud\u0113s vid\u0113ji 17 100 cilv\u0113ku. Laika posm\u0101 l\u012bdz 2040.gadam Latvijas darba tirgus zaud\u0113s v\u0113l 30% cilv\u0113ku.<\/li>\n<li>Jaun\u0101ka gadag\u0101juma (19-39 gadi) darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits krit\u012bs strauj\u0101k, nek\u0101 vec\u0101ka gadag\u0101juma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits.<\/li>\n<li>Pensijas vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju (65 un vair\u0101k gadi) skaits s\u0101ks samazin\u0101ties, ta\u010du \u012bpatsvars iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju kopskait\u0101 pieaugs no 20,52% l\u012bdz 22,81%, jo jaunie\u0161u, b\u0113rnu un darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits saruks v\u0113l strauj\u0101k.<\/li>\n<li>Dzims aizvien maz\u0101k b\u0113rnu, jo Latviju atst\u0101s augl\u012bg\u0101 vecuma sievietes. Ja 2019. gad\u0101 piedzima 18 786 b\u0113rni, tad 2040.gad\u0101 piedzims ap 12 530 b\u0113rnu.<\/li>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits krit\u012bsies vis\u0101s vecuma grup\u0101s un slogs uz soci\u0101lo bud\u017eetu pieaugs tikai nedaudz, sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar b\u0101zes scen\u0101riju. No \u0161\u0101 aspekta pensijas vecuma cel\u0161ana neb\u016btu tik nepiecie\u0161ama.<\/li>\n<li>Pensijas vecuma cel\u0161ana par vienu gadu tikai da\u013c\u0113ji kompens\u0113tu vien\u0101 gad\u0101 zaud\u0113to darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitu: t\u0101 uz vienu gadu dotu darba tirgum ap 10-12 t\u016bksto\u0161i cilv\u0113ku, kam\u0113r zaud\u0113ti tiek ap 17 t\u016bksto\u0161i.<\/li>\n<li>30% darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita sarukums rada milzu izaicin\u0101jumu nacion\u0101l\u0101s ekonomikas att\u012bst\u012bbai. Iesp\u0113jams, darba efektivit\u0101tes pieaugums to sp\u0113s kompens\u0113t: asto\u0146u gadu laik\u0101 no 2010. l\u012bdz 2018. gadam Latvij\u0101 darba efektivit\u0101te pieauga par 27,5%, \u0161aj\u0101 jom\u0101 sasniedzot vienu no lab\u0101kajiem r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jiem pasaul\u0113. [3]<\/li>\n<li>Tas, ka efektivit\u0101tes pieaugums tikai \u201ckompens\u0113\u201d darba roku skaita sarukumu noz\u012bm\u0113 to, ka valsts ekonomika dr\u012bz\u0101k st\u0101v uz vietas vai pieaug l\u0113ni, t.i. valsts ekonomisk\u0101 att\u012bst\u012bba stagn\u0113.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Imigr\u0101cijas scen\u0101rija demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes<\/h3>\n<figure style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Migrac_imigr_2019.png\" alt=\"Migr\u0101cijas prognoze Latvij\u0101, imigr\u0101cijas scen\u0101rijs\" width=\"550\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">6.att\u0113ls. Migr\u0101cijas saldo prognoze, imigr\u0101cijas scen\u0101rijs. Iek\u013cauts t\u0101ds imigrantu skaits, kas 2040.gad\u0101 \u013cautu sasniegt tagad\u0113jo iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitu.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u0160\u0101 scen\u0101rija ietvaros tiek pie\u0146emts, ka Latvij\u0101 tiek piesaist\u012bts t\u0101ds imigrantu skaits, kas \u013cauj 2040. gad\u0101 atg\u016bt 2019. gada s\u0101kum\u0101 dz\u012bvoju\u0161o iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitu \u2013 1,92 miljonus.<\/p>\n<p>\u0160\u012b scen\u0101rija ietvaros:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju dz\u012bves ilgums pak\u0101peniski palielin\u0101sies;<\/li>\n<li>Dzimst\u012bbas koeficients k\u0101ps strauj\u0101k, jo valst\u012b ierad\u012bsies sal\u012bdzino\u0161i liel\u0101ks skaits jaunu cilv\u0113ku, kuriem, uzlabojoties vi\u0146u \u0123ime\u0146u ekonomiskajai situ\u0101cijai, b\u016bs iesp\u0113ja rad\u012bt vair\u0101k b\u0113rnu;<\/li>\n<li>M\u0101tes vid\u0113jais vecums \u012bpa\u0161i nemain\u012bsies, jo jauniebrauc\u0113ji rad\u012bs b\u0113rnus sal\u012bdzino\u0161i agr\u0101k\u0101 vecum\u0101, savuk\u0101rt \u0161eit jau dz\u012bvojo\u0161\u0101s sievietes izv\u0113l\u0113sies rad\u012bt b\u0113rnus aizvien liel\u0101k\u0101 vecum\u0101;<\/li>\n<li>Migr\u0101cijas saldo krasi uzlabosies. Lai 2040. gad\u0101 sasniegtu 1,92 miljonus iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju, tiek veikts meh\u0101nisks pie\u0146\u0113mums, ka kop\u0161 2026. gada valst\u012b iebrauc par 16 000 cilv\u0113kiem vair\u0101k, nek\u0101 to atst\u0101j. Rezult\u0101t\u0101 laika posm\u0101 l\u012bdz 2040.gadam valst\u012b apmetas par 274 300 vair\u0101k cilv\u0113ku, nek\u0101 to atst\u0101j.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/emergingsolutions.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Prognoze_imigr_2019.png\" alt=\"Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes, imigr\u0101cijas scen\u0101rijs\" width=\"550\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">7.att\u0113ls. Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita prognoze l\u012bdz 2040.gadam, imigr\u0101cijas scen\u0101rijs.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Pie \u0161\u0101diem nosac\u012bjumiem, laika posm\u0101 l\u012bdz 2040.gadam Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija att\u012bst\u012bsies \u0161\u0101di:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits s\u0101kotn\u0113ji turpina kristies, bet kop\u0161 2028.gada atkal s\u0101k pieaugt, 2040. gad\u0101 atkal sasniedzot 1,92 miljonus.<\/li>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101s tikai pensijas vecuma grup\u0101.<\/li>\n<li>Darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma (19-64 gadi) iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits kr\u012btas aizvien l\u0113n\u0101k, l\u012bdz 2028. gad\u0101 atkal s\u0101k pieaugt. Tom\u0113r 2040. gad\u0101 tas v\u0113l nav sasniedzis 2019. gada l\u012bmeni. Darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita \u012bpatsvars nedaudz samazin\u0101s no 59,73% l\u012bdz 59,49%.<\/li>\n<li>Gados jaun\u0101ku (19-39 gadi) darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits kr\u012btas l\u012bdz 2026. gadam un tad s\u0101k aizvien strauj\u0101k pieaugt. 2035. gad\u0101 tas p\u0101rsniedz 2020. gada r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jus.<\/li>\n<li>Gados vec\u0101ku (40-64 gadi) darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits turpina samazin\u0101ties l\u012bdz 2030. gadam un tad \u013coti l\u0113n\u0101m s\u0101k atkal pieaugt. L\u012bdz 2040. gadam tas joproj\u0101m ir b\u016btiski maz\u0101ks, nek\u0101 2019. gad\u0101.<\/li>\n<li>Pensijas vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju (65 un vair\u0101k gadi) samazin\u0101s ik gadu l\u012bdz 2040. gadam no 0,39 miljoniem l\u012bdz 0,33 miljoniem. \u0160\u012b vecuma iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita \u012bpatsvars samazin\u0101s no tagad\u0113jiem 20,52% l\u012bdz 17,18%.<\/li>\n<li>Jaundzimu\u0161o skaits l\u012bdz 2031. gadam saglab\u0101jas gandr\u012bz nemain\u012bgs un tad s\u0101k aizvien strauj\u0101k pieaugt, 2040. gad\u0101 sasniedzot 25 200, kas p\u0101rsniedz pat 2008. gada r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jus.<\/li>\n<li>B\u0113rnu un jaunie\u0161u skaits s\u0101k pieaugt jau 2020. gad\u0101 no 0,38 miljoniem l\u012bdz 0,45 miljoniem, \u012bpatsvars kop\u0113j\u0101 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skait\u0101 pieaugs no 19,75% l\u012bdz 23,33%.<\/li>\n<li>Samazin\u0101sies pension\u0101ru rad\u012btais slogs uz soci\u0101lo bud\u017eetu un pieaugs b\u0113rnu un jaunie\u0161u rad\u012btais slogs \u0161im bud\u017eetam. Kop\u0113jais slogs uz soci\u0101lo bud\u017eetu b\u016btiski nemain\u012bsies, jo \u012bpa\u0161i nemain\u012bsies proporcijas starp darbsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecuma cilv\u0113kiem un p\u0101r\u0113jiem iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem.<\/li>\n<li>Pensijas vecuma cel\u0161ana \u0161\u012b scen\u0101rija ietvaros no makroekonomisk\u0101 viedok\u013ca neb\u016btu nepiecie\u0161ama.<\/li>\n<li>Eso\u0161o valsts att\u012bst\u012bbas l\u012bmeni pie \u0161\u0101da demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s att\u012bst\u012bbas scen\u0101rija, visdr\u012bz\u0101k, izdosies b\u016btiski k\u0101pin\u0101t. Tom\u0113r tas ir iesp\u0113jams tikai tad, ja imigr\u0101cijas politika tiek veidota t\u0101, lai piesaist\u012btu vair\u0101k vai maz\u0101k kvalific\u0113tu darbasp\u0113ku. Maz kvalific\u0113ts darbasp\u0113ks var b\u016btiski kav\u0113t augstas pievienot\u0101s v\u0113rt\u012bbas ekonomikas att\u012bst\u012bbu.<\/li>\n<li>Liels imigrantu skaits var b\u016btiski palielin\u0101t ksenofobiju, kas var novest pie soci\u0101lekonomisk\u0101s nestabilit\u0101tes, valsts un sabiedr\u012bbas nosl\u0113g\u0161an\u0101s un tam sekojo\u0161as ekonomisk\u0101s stagn\u0101cijas un valsts iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju izce\u013co\u0161anas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Vai, ilgsto\u0161i samazinoties iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitam, valsts ekonomika var b\u016bt sekm\u012bga?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Latvij\u0101 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits samazin\u0101s jau vair\u0101k, nek\u0101 vienu paaudzi.<\/li>\n<li>Par sp\u012bti tam, m\u016bsu valsts ekonomika l\u012bdz \u0161im ir bijusi veiksm\u012bga \u2013 m\u016bsu labkl\u0101j\u012bbas l\u012bmenis kop\u0161 1995. gada ir apsteidzis vair\u0101k k\u0101 30 citu pasaules valstu labkl\u0101j\u012bbas l\u012bmeni un Latviju \u0161aj\u0101 r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101j\u0101 nav apsteigusi neviena valsts. [4]<\/li>\n<li>L\u012bdz\u0161in\u0113j\u0101 veiksm\u012bg\u0101 valsts att\u012bst\u012bba ir saist\u0101ma ar p\u0101reju no neefekt\u012bv\u0101 PSRS ekonomikas mode\u013ca uz efekt\u012bv\u0101ku. Tom\u0113r, p\u0113c tam kad \u0161\u012b p\u0101reja ir notikusi, saglab\u0101t veiksm\u012bgu att\u012bst\u012bbu ir gandr\u012bz neiesp\u0113jami, ja iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju aizpl\u016b\u0161ana no valsts turpin\u0101s.<\/li>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita samazin\u0101\u0161an\u0101s rada \u0161\u0101dus izaicin\u0101jumus modernas ekonomikas att\u012bst\u012bb\u0101:\n<ul>\n<li>Maz\u0101ks pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101ju loks noved pie \u0161aur\u0101ka tirgus pied\u0101v\u0101juma: valst\u012b samazin\u0101s produktu daudzveid\u012bba. K\u0101 tas labi zin\u0101ms, piem\u0113ram, m\u016bsu gr\u0101matu izdev\u0113jiem, produkcijas ra\u017eo\u0161anas izmaksas uz vienu produkcijas vien\u012bbu maz\u0101 tirg\u016b ir liel\u0101kas, nek\u0101 liel\u0101 tirg\u016b. Neliel\u0101 ciemat\u0101 15 min\u016b\u0161u g\u0101jiena att\u0101lum\u0101 pieejams daudz maz\u0101ks sadz\u012bves pakalpojumu kl\u0101sts, nek\u0101 liel\u0101 pils\u0113t\u0101.<\/li>\n<li>Maz\u0101ks iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits krasi samazina dzi\u013cas specializ\u0101cijas iesp\u0113jas, kas m\u016bsdienu ekonomik\u0101 ir absol\u016bta nepiecie\u0161am\u012bba. [5]<\/li>\n<li>Jo maz\u0101ks iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits, jo statistiski maz\u0101k iesp\u0113ju \u0161aj\u0101 kopum\u0101 rasties veiksm\u012bg\u0101m inov\u0101cij\u0101m. [6]<\/li>\n<li>Maz\u0101ks iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits noz\u012bm\u0113 maz\u0101ku ideju apmai\u0146as procesa apjomu. [7]<\/li>\n<li>Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju noveco\u0161an\u0101s samazina sabiedr\u012bb\u0101 jaunie\u0161iem sal\u012bdzino\u0161i rakstur\u012bg\u0101ko rado\u0161umu un aizraut\u012bbu. [8]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u0145emot v\u0113r\u0101 augst\u0101k min\u0113to, Latvijai, visdr\u012bz\u0101k, b\u016bs \u013coti gr\u016bti saglab\u0101t l\u012bdz\u0161in\u0113jo veiksm\u012bgo ekonomikas att\u012bst\u012bbas tendenci, ja iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits turpin\u0101s samazin\u0101ties tik strauji, k\u0101 tas prognoz\u0113ts kr\u012bzes un ar\u012b b\u0101zes scen\u0101rijos.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Vai iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitu var saglab\u0101t, tikai palielinot dzimst\u012bbu?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Ja tiek izv\u0113l\u0113ts teor\u0113tisks m\u0113r\u0137is 2040. gad\u0101 saglab\u0101t tikpat lielu iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitu, k\u0101 2020. gada s\u0101kum\u0101, ta\u010du, pateicoties tikai straujam dzimst\u012bbas pieaugumam, nevis imigr\u0101cijai, tad, atbilst\u012bgi demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes kohortas mode\u013ca datiem, katrai Latvijas sievietei ir j\u0101dzemd\u0113 vid\u0113ji 3,51 b\u0113rns.<\/li>\n<li>Pa\u0161laik vienai sievietei Latvij\u0101 ir vid\u0113ji 1,61 b\u0113rns.<\/li>\n<li>Aptuveni 20-25% b\u0113rnu Latvij\u0101 dzimst, pielietojot \u0137eizargriezienu. [9] \u0160\u0101du oper\u0101ciju p\u0101rsvar\u0101 nevar atk\u0101rtot vair\u0101kas reizes. Bez tam att\u012bst\u012btaj\u0101s valst\u012bs aptuveni ceturt\u0101 da\u013ca p\u0101ru ir neaugl\u012bgi. L\u012bdz ar to noz\u012bm\u012bga da\u013ca sievie\u0161u Latvij\u0101 nesp\u0113j rad\u012bt 3-4 b\u0113rnus.<\/li>\n<li>Atbilsto\u0161i aptauju datiem, v\u0113lamais b\u0113rnu skaits vid\u0113j\u0101 Latvijas \u0123imen\u0113 ir 2,3. [10]<\/li>\n<li>Eirop\u0101 augst\u0101k\u0101 dzimst\u012bba ir Francij\u0101 (1,88). \u0160\u0101da augsta dzimst\u012bba Eirop\u0101 tiek sasniegta, ja valst\u012b ir nesena liela apjoma imigr\u0101cija, t.i. valst\u012b non\u0101cis liels skaits jaunu cilv\u0113ku, kuru dz\u012bves apst\u0101k\u013ci jaunaj\u0101 m\u012btnes zem\u0113 ir uzlaboju\u0161ies.<\/li>\n<li>L\u012bdz ar to var prognoz\u0113t, ka, pat \u012bpa\u0161i uzlabojot ekonomisko situ\u0101ciju un r\u016bp\u0113joties par jaunaj\u0101m \u0123imen\u0113m, vairums sievie\u0161u nesp\u0113s vai nev\u0113l\u0113sies rad\u012bt 3-4 b\u0113rnus.<\/li>\n<li>Ja vid\u0113jais vienai sievietei piedzimu\u0161o b\u0113rnu skaits pieaugtu par 0,1, 2040. gad\u0101 tas dotu demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s situ\u0101cijas uzlabojumu par 20 000 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju. L\u012bdz ar to r\u016bp\u012bgi pl\u0101notai \u0123imenes politikai Latvij\u0101 ir milzu noz\u012bme gan darba tirgus n\u0101kotnei, gan soci\u0101li labv\u0113l\u012bgas valsts att\u012bst\u012bbai kopum\u0101.<\/li>\n<li>Tom\u0113r, pat ar izcilu \u0123imenes politiku Latvijas demogr\u0101fisko situ\u0101ciju neizdosies b\u016btiski uzlabot \u2013 demogr\u0101fisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija valst\u012b turpin\u0101s pasliktin\u0101ties pat pie vislabv\u0113l\u012bg\u0101k\u0101s \u0123imenes politikas. Darba tirg\u016b \u0123imenes politika uzlabojumus dod l\u0113ni.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Ko dar\u012bt?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Visdr\u012bz\u0101k, tie\u0161i demogr\u0101fisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija rada visliel\u0101kos draudus Latvijas valsts att\u012bst\u012bbai, t.sk. bezmaz jebkura Latvijas uz\u0146\u0113muma att\u012bst\u012bbai. Mums ir divas iesp\u0113jas: a) turpin\u0101t to ignor\u0113t un izlikties, ka nekas \u012bpa\u0161s nenotiek; b) r\u012bkoties proakt\u012bvi, un, izmantojot datus un prognozes, pie\u0146emt t\u0101dus l\u0113mumus, kas nodro\u0161ina veiksm\u012bgu valsts att\u012bst\u012bbu un past\u0101v\u0113\u0161anu ilg\u0101k\u0101 n\u0101kotn\u0113.<\/li>\n<li>\u0160eit sniegt\u0101 anal\u012bze ir vienk\u0101r\u0161ota. Lai izprastu n\u0101kotnes situ\u0101ciju un turpm\u0101k dar\u0101mo, ir nepiecie\u0161ama daudz detaliz\u0113t\u0101ka un prec\u012bz\u0101ka demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s situ\u0101cijas anal\u012bze. \u0160o darbu j\u0101veic pla\u0161\u0101kam speci\u0101listu kolekt\u012bvam un, protams, tikai tad, ja tam ir j\u0113ga, t.i., darba rezult\u0101ti tiek izmantoti, pie\u0146emot l\u0113mumus valsts p\u0101rvald\u012bb\u0101.<\/li>\n<li>Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija ir \u013coti sare\u017e\u0123\u012bta. \u0160eit nav iesp\u0113jami vienk\u0101r\u0161i, pat\u012bkami un veiksm\u012bgi l\u0113mumi \u2013 jebkuras divas no \u0161\u012bm \u012bpa\u0161\u012bb\u0101m izsl\u0113dz tre\u0161o.<\/li>\n<li>Valsts amatperson\u0101m ir j\u0101skaidro iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem, k\u0101das p\u0101rmai\u0146as notiek valsts iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju sast\u0101v\u0101, pie k\u0101 tas noved un ko var\u0113tu dar\u012bt, lai situ\u0101ciju v\u0113rstu par labu.<\/li>\n<li>Ar iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem ir j\u0101konsult\u0113jas par noz\u012bm\u012bg\u0101kajiem pie\u0146emamajiem l\u0113mumiem, pirms tam pamat\u012bgi izskaidrojot situ\u0101ciju un da\u017e\u0101dos situ\u0101cijas att\u012bst\u012bbas scen\u0101rijus. Vairums no mums ir gatavi pie\u0146emt ar\u012b sev nepat\u012bkamus l\u0113mumus, ja m\u0113s redzam, ka nav citas iesp\u0113jas un galu gal\u0101 rezult\u0101ts b\u016bs lab\u0101ks, nek\u0101 bez \u0161\u0101da l\u0113muma.<\/li>\n<li>Samazinoties Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitam, aizvien svar\u012bg\u0101ka k\u013c\u016bst Latvijas valsts atv\u0113rt\u012bba p\u0101r\u0113jai pasaulei. Ja valstij samazin\u0101s iek\u0161\u0113jie resursi, tai nav citas iesp\u0113jas savas konkur\u0113tsp\u0113jas saglab\u0101\u0161anai, k\u0101 vien veidojot atv\u0113rtu sabiedr\u012bbu un ekonomiku. [11]<\/li>\n<li>J\u0101izv\u0113rt\u0113 Jap\u0101nas pieredze, ievie\u0161ot \u201csabiedr\u012bba 5.0\u201d jeb t.s. \u201cizdomas sabiedr\u012bbas\u201d pl\u0101nu. Jap\u0101na jau ilgsto\u0161i saskaras ar demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s situ\u0101cijas rad\u012btajiem izaicin\u0101jumiem, un vismaz da\u013ca no \u0161aj\u0101 valst\u012b ieg\u016bt\u0101s pieredzes un n\u0101kotnes iecer\u0113m ir \u013coti v\u0113rt\u012bgi ar\u012b Latvijai. [12]<\/li>\n<li>Ir past\u0101v\u012bgi j\u0101apzina, kas Latvijas \u0123imenes motiv\u0113tu rad\u012bt vair\u0101k b\u0113rnu, un m\u0113r\u0137tiec\u012bgi j\u0101veic tas, kas \u0161aj\u0101 zi\u0146\u0101 ilgtermi\u0146\u0101 (!) sniegs vislab\u0101ko rezult\u0101tu, pat ja risin\u0101jums ir neierasts. Piem\u0113ram, ja \u0123imenes palielin\u0101jumu visbie\u017e\u0101k kav\u0113 dz\u012bvojam\u0101s telpas tr\u016bkums, valstij ir j\u0101izv\u0113rt\u0113, kas notiks, ja valsts finans\u0113jums tiks p\u0101rvirz\u012bts subsid\u0113tu dz\u012bvojamo plat\u012bbu b\u016bvniec\u012bbai, un ir j\u0101r\u012bkojas. Ja \u0123imenes palielin\u0101jumu visvair\u0101k kav\u0113 zemais ie\u0146\u0113mumu l\u012bmenis, valstij ir j\u0101izv\u0113rt\u0113, piem\u0113ram, finans\u0113juma p\u0101rvirz\u012b\u0161ana \u012bpa\u0161ai vec\u0101ku uz\u0146\u0113m\u0113jdarb\u012bbas atbalsta programmai.<\/li>\n<li>Latvij\u0101 jau notiek neorganiz\u0113ta darba sp\u0113ka ieve\u0161ana \u2013 imigr\u0101cija. Situ\u0101cija pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101 form\u0101t\u0101 ir nev\u0113lama kaut vai t\u0101d\u0113\u013c, ka vairums imigr\u0113ju\u0161\u0101 darbasp\u0113ka nodok\u013cus nemaks\u0101 vai maks\u0101 tos cit\u0101s valst\u012bs, un \u0161ie cilv\u0113ki ir soci\u0101li maz aizsarg\u0101ti.<\/li>\n<li>Latvij\u0101 faktiski neeksist\u0113 imigr\u0101cijas politika. M\u0113s neesami izdom\u0101ju\u0161i, ko \u0161eit v\u0113lamies redz\u0113t un ko \u2013 n\u0113, un cik cilv\u0113kus ik gadu esam gatavi pie\u0146emt. M\u0113s nezin\u0101m, k\u0101 iek\u013caut atbrauc\u0113jus sabiedr\u012bb\u0101 un k\u0101 vi\u0146iem p\u0113c iesp\u0113jas \u0101tri apg\u016bt latvie\u0161u valodu.<\/li>\n<li>Net\u0101lu no Latvijas ir valstis, kas att\u012bst\u012bju\u0161as un \u012bsteno savu imigr\u0101cijas politiku. M\u0113s varam daudz m\u0101c\u012bties (gan labu, gan sliktu) un p\u0101r\u0146emt no \u012arijas, Somijas, Islandes, Norv\u0113\u0123ijas, Zviedrijas, V\u0101cijas un cit\u0101m valst\u012bm.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Atsauces<\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/statistics-explained\/index.php\/Fertility_statistics#live_births_per_woman_in_the_EU_in_2018\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">1.55 live births per woman in the EU in 2018.<\/a> Eurostat.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/statistics-explained\/index.php\/Mortality_and_life_expectancy_statistics#Life_expectancy_increased_in_EU-27_in_2018\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mortality and life expectancy statistics<\/a>, Eurostat.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/data.oecd.org\/lprdty\/gdp-per-hour-worked.htm\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">GDP per hour worked<\/a>, OECD.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP (current international USD)<\/a><\/li>\n<li>\u0160\u012b t\u0113ze ir daudzpus\u012bgi apl\u016bkota daudzu autoru darbos. P\u0113d\u0113j\u0101s desmitgad\u0113s sal\u012bdzino\u0161i ietekm\u012bgs ir Steadman Upham ieguld\u012bjums \u0161aj\u0101 jom\u0101, piem\u0113ram, \u201cThe Evolution of Social Systems. Sociopolitics in Small-Scale Sedentary Societies\u201d, 1990, ISBN-10: 0521382521.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.encyclopedia.com\/social-sciences\/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps\/technological-change-and-population-growth\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Technological Change and Population Growth<\/a>, Encyclopedia of Population.<\/li>\n<li>Jason Collins, Boris Baer, Ernst Juerg Weber. <a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2284456\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Population, Technological Progress and the Evolution of Innovative Potential.<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Piem\u0113ram, Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population, ISBN-10: 0309261961. Sk. \u0161\u012b darba <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/books\/NBK148825\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">6.noda\u013cu<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Slim\u012bbu profilakses un kontroles centra Jaundzimu\u0161o re\u0123istra dati.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lsm.lv\/raksts\/zinas\/latvija\/aptauja-latvija-lenam-pieaug-velamais-bernu-skaits-gimene.a191389\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">SKDS aptaujas dati<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>\u0160\u0101da t\u0113ze tiek attiecin\u0101ta uz ASV, lai \u0161\u012bs valsts ekonomika sp\u0113tu saglab\u0101t savu starptautisko konkur\u0113tsp\u0113ju. Latvijai, k\u0101 daudz maz\u0101kai ekonomikai, atv\u0113rt\u012bba ir nesal\u012bdzin\u0101mi svar\u012bg\u0101ka. Sk. Charles I. Jones un Paul M. Romer, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w15094.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital<\/a>. National Bureau of Economic Research, June 2009.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www8.cao.go.jp\/cstp\/english\/society5_0\/index.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">What is Society 5.0?<\/a> Jap\u0101nas Ministru Kabineta m\u0101jaslapa.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kopsavilkums SIA \"Emerging Solutions\" jau otro gadu sagatavo Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s prognozes apskatu laika posmam l\u012bdz 2040.gadam. Anal\u012bze ir veikta, izmantojot demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s kohortas anal\u012bzes metodi. 1.att\u0113ls. Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju vecuma strukt\u016bra, 2020.gada s\u0101kums. Latvijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits turpina samazin\u0101ties, ta\u010du tagad tas notiek liel\u0101koties zem\u0101s dzimst\u012bbas nevis migr\u0101cijas d\u0113\u013c. 2019.gad\u0101 migr\u0101cijas d\u0113\u013c zaud\u0113j\u0101m","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized-lv"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s situ\u0101cijas prognozes - EmSol Consulting &amp; IT<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Latvijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s situ\u0101cijas prognozes laika posmam no 2020. l\u012bdz 2040.gadam. 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